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Prevail is a state-of-the-art demand planning application
that can be used to create accurate Weekly Sales Forecasts.
Prevail8 was developed to provide an integrated
forecasting solution that is more flexible,
powerful, responsive, secure
and measurable than prior Prevail versions.
Detailed forecasts developed within Prevail8 are designed
to roll-up to highly accurate operational forecasts (by Product
x Warehouse x Day) which are utilized within a Replenishment
Planning System. Areté plans to retire the legacy Prevail7
application by the end of 2011, and we strongly encourage
all clients to upgrade to Prevail8 as soon as possible to
realize the significant benefits outlined below.
Flexible Forecasting Models
More Dimensions of Data
Prevail8 features six dimensions of sales data in order to
produce the best possible forecast models and results. The
lowest level of data granularity within Prevail8 is the Detail
Combo, which is a unique combination of a warehouse, product,
channel, account, territory, and distributor. Though the use
of all six data dimensions is not required, dimensionality
will be adapted to fit specific material, market and delivery
information for each client.
Sophisticated Methodologies for Bundling and Slicing
Data
Bundling is an intelligent way to group Detail Combos into
Model Combos across dataset dimensions using different rules
to produce optimal forecast models. Bundling is now more flexible
than in prior versions, allowing multiple levels at which
to model forecasts that did not exist in legacy versions.
Powerful Forecasting Techniques
Enhanced Ability to Handle Exceptions
Prevail8 features eight configurable Exception event types
(e.g. Special Events, Summer Holidays, Winter Holidays, Special
Packaging, Hot Price Promotion, etc.) and supports simultaneous
occurrences of exceptions during a given sales week. Exception
model calculations can now utilize outlet participation percentage
in the specific exception to better predict the effects of
promotion. These and other Prevail8 features will help facilitate
product market launches in a time-phased fashion.
Advanced Statistical Tools
Prevail8 provides a more sophisticated statistical method
for detecting sales outlers which should then be excluded
from the Model-level data used to create forecasts. The application
performs numerical analysis to evaluate multicollinearity
of data more efficiently.
Improved management of Seasonality
Seasonality patterns will now be identified within any data
dimension rather than just warehouse-product. Prevail8 more
readily recognizes non-seasonal dips and spikes in sales and
will utilize alternative smoothing parameters for weekly seasonality
computations. Users can choose to apply separate smoothing
algorithms for weekly forecasting versus monthly planning
for flexibility and accuracy.
Prevail implementation is a five-stage process. Each stage
of the implementation process is described in the Standard
Implementation Plan. Click
here to view a pdf version of the Standard Prevail Implementation
Plan.
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